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The Quiet Europe Pivot
Geopolitics / India

India Just Courted the Netherlands, Italy and the Nordics. Not Just France and Germany.

PM Modi swept five countries in six days. The headline was Norway, the first Indian PM there in 43 years. The real story was who he chose, and what each one quietly controls.

Everyone was busy watching Washington. The tariffs, the truce, the on-again off-again chemistry between Modi and Trump. And while we were all looking there, India quietly pulled off something far more interesting in Europe.


Five Countries, Six Days, One Idea

Between the 15th and the 20th of May, PM Modi hit five countries in six days. The UAE first, then the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy. The headline was Norway, because no Indian Prime Minister had set foot there in 43 years, not since Indira Gandhi in 1983. He walked into the third India-Nordic Summit in Oslo with all five Nordic prime ministers in the room, did his bilaterals, and closed the tour in Rome with Giorgia Meloni.

This was not one visit. It was a deliberate sweep through Europe’s middle, and the choice of countries tells you exactly what India is actually shopping for.


India Is Shopping for Capability, Not GDP

Look at who made the list, and then forget how big they are. That is the whole trick.

The Netherlands is the heavyweight on paper. Bilateral trade hit USD 27.8 billion in 2024-25, cumulative Dutch investment in India is around USD 55.6 billion, and the talks covered defence, semiconductors, green hydrogen and water management. Semiconductors is the tell. The Dutch sit on a genuine chokepoint in the global chip supply chain. This is India buying its way into the one part of the stack it cannot build alone yet.

The Nordics are tiny on trade, about USD 19 billion combined, with roughly 700 Nordic companies already operating in India. But they control things worth far more than their size. Telecom through Nokia, trucks and heavy industry through Volvo, retail systems through IKEA, plus green shipping, Arctic research, maritime tech and digital governance. The summit agenda was not soft talk either. Technology, the green transition, the blue economy, defence, space and the Arctic.

Italy brings defence and the IMEEC corridor, the India to Middle East to Europe trade route, which matters a great deal more now that West Asia is on fire.

What India Was Actually Shopping For

Netherlands: USD 27.8 billion in trade and USD 55.6 billion in cumulative Dutch investment. The real prize is a seat near the global semiconductor chokepoint.

The Nordics: only about USD 19 billion in combined trade, but around 700 Nordic firms already in India and outsized control of telecom, green shipping, Arctic tech and digital governance.

Italy: defence and the IMEEC trade corridor. Ties were upgraded to a Special Strategic Partnership on this trip.

Norway: first Indian PM visit in 43 years, and host of the third India-Nordic Summit with all five Nordic leaders in the room.

The through-line is simple. India is going after small countries that own specific, hard-to-copy technologies, instead of only chasing the biggest economies. Capability, not size.


The Melody Moment

And then there was Rome. PM Modi closed the tour with Meloni, and the two governments upgraded the relationship to a Special Strategic Partnership. But the bit that actually travelled was smaller and a lot more fun.

PM Modi handed Meloni a packet of Melody toffees. Melodi. The same nickname the internet stuck on the two of them back in 2023. It looks like a gimmick until you remember that this is exactly how serious deals get a friendly face. Under the toffees sits the IMEEC corridor and a defence relationship India genuinely wants. The candy was the photo. The corridor is the point.


Why This Is a Pivot and Not a Holiday

Two things make it more than a busy travel month.

First, it is mutual de-risking. Europe wants out of its over-dependence on China, and India is the obvious hedge. India, for its part, is trimming its exposure to both China and an increasingly transactional United States. The two needs meet neatly in the middle.

“De-risking, not decoupling.”

Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President

Second, it is minilateral. India dealt with the Nordics as a bloc and picked specific capitals, instead of routing everything through Brussels or the old Franco-German axis. That is faster, more bespoke, and it builds real leverage with countries that are individually small but collectively serious.


Why Everyone Started Spreading Their Bets

Step back, and this fits a much bigger pattern that started a few years ago.

The Lesson Everyone Quietly Took Home

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the West froze roughly 300 billion dollars of Russian central bank reserves more or less overnight. Money Moscow thought was its own, parked in dollars and euros, was simply switched off. Every finance ministry on earth noted the same uncomfortable thing. The system can be turned off, and the people holding the switch are not always going to be on your side.

So the world started spreading its bets. Not with speeches, just steadily. The Gulf, Southeast Asia, Africa, South America, all building options beyond the old Atlantic core. Not out of hatred for the West, but because depending on one address for everything had stopped feeling safe.

India got its own personal nudge. In August 2025 Washington slapped 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods, half of it a straight penalty for buying Russian oil, while warming up to Pakistan at the same time. There has since been a partial truce that brought the rate back down, but the trust took a hit that a smaller number does not fully repair.

“Depending on one address for everything had stopped feeling safe.”

The quiet lesson of the last few years

So when India spends six days collecting partners across Europe’s middle, it is not random. It is a country that learned the same lesson everyone else did, and is quietly building a wider web, so that no single capital, in Washington or Beijing, ever holds all the cards.

The Habit That Outlasts the Toffees

I am not going to oversell this. The trade numbers are still small next to the US, China, or the EU taken as a whole. A packed travel month is not a finished realignment, and some of this diversification is less grand master plan and more making a virtue of a bad year. France is still central. Germany is still an anchor. The big summits and bilaterals are not going anywhere.

But the logic underneath is genuinely smart. Going after capability instead of size, treating small countries as the holders of specific keys, refusing to run everything through two or three capitals. That is not symbolism. That is a country that has worked out the old map does not protect it anymore, and has started quietly drawing a new one.

The toffees will be forgotten by next month. The habit of spreading your bets will not.

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